Seismologist, Project MASH

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Project MASH

Development of a Model for Assessing Seismic Hazards (MASH) for Disaster Planning, Mitigation and Preparedness

ABSTRACT

The research proposed encompasses developing a technologically advanced seismic assessment simulator using Project-Ergo, developed by the earthquake engineering community under the leadership of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The proposed research will build upon the existing ERGO-CORE platform, a robust and comprehensive modeling tool for generating damage estimates and forecasting higher level impacts of earthquakes. This platform will provide a foundation for developing the Hybrid Model for Assessing Seismic Hazards (MASH), a cloud-based modular system that leverages the customizable ERGO-CORE architecture and allows users to ingest legacy data, run simulations and publish their findings to the community. Combining the capabilities of the ERGO-CORE and our public safety process engineering, the simulator will empower users to predict the consequences of catastrophic events like earthquakes and effectively illustrate its effects on roads, bridges, buildings, utilities and other infrastructure networks.

In an effort to enhance forecasters’ ability to determine the overall impact of seismic hazards, the University of Illinois’ National Center for Supercomputing Applications and the Mid-America Earthquake Center has developed Project ERGO. This tool is easy to deploy and use and can be integrated with other systems and tailored to support forecasting for all hazards, natural and man-made. The Homeland Security Foundation of America (HSFA) Public Safety Office, with direct support from the Project ERGO team at the University of Illinois, will develop and deploy MASH domestically in a highly populated city that historically has been a source of prominent seismic activity. MASH will initially be deployed in Southern California. The program will be extended to other areas and expanded to assess all hazards as resources and funding permits.

The city of Memphis, Tennessee has used ERGO to simulate and plan for a major seismic event on the New Madrid fault line. ERGO has been the earthquake impact assessment platform for the City of Istanbul, with technical support from Istanbul Technical University. ERGO is currently in use in Austria, China, Jamaica, Lebanon, New Zealand, South Korea, and Trinidad and other locales. Institutions from at least 9 other countries (England, South Africa, Chile, Italy, Greece, Costa Rica, India, and Taiwan) have expressed interest in using ERGO as well.

Earthquakes can have a catastrophic impact in urban areas. This program will help users understand how to better incorporate seismic information into city planning policy. Additionally, forecasters will be able to make reasonable observations and projections based on simulated post-quake scenarios to evaluate the current state of emergency management after a crisis, malfunctions in the infrastructure networks, economic consequences, the challenges of getting businesses operational again and the potential impact on the ability to deliver basic social services post-disaster. With an increased ability to evaluate "what-if" scenarios, emergency managers will be able to deploy improved mitigation strategies for seismic hazard risk-prevention and better prepare the city’s leadership and its populous for disaster, which will help save lives and property.